What does Russia's power grab tell us about Nato: Takeaways from 2022 Aspen Security Forum

Aspen, Colo. is a location where top officials gather to discuss challenges faced in today's world. There was an array of speakers, who discussed topics like cybersecurity, food insecurity, and Russia’s war against Ukraine. Attendees were generally pessimistic towards the future. What does Russia's power grab tell us about Nato? Experts predict that the high costs of gas, food and supplies will eventually wear down support for Ukraine. Already, some Republicans have come out against the large aid packages for Ukraine. Rep. Brendan Boyle said that share of the GOP - the "Trumpists base" - is likely to grow especially "as long as we have this inflation crisis in the West". People may be tired of war, including people in Central European states. To keep the peace in the world, there are many changes that we should make, including teaching our societies that supporting this policy will be worth the effort. The United States is intensifying its military support of Ukraine due to appeals from leaders such as Olena Zelenska. The US will send more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to the Ukrainians, among other things. Taiwan is a hugely important piece of international diplomacy The ambassador from China to the United States accuses Washington of hollowing out and blurring up its longstanding "One China" policy by sending more officials and weapons to Taiwan. The ambassador said that the best way to achieve peace would be through reunification; and although he does not want to speculate about what might happen if unification does not happen, he acknowledged that it is best for "people on both sides." The question is when the country will reunify, and the CIA director (who does not want to disclose his name) says that this will be more difficult as time goes. The risk of a Chinese leader taking over Korea may increase as the decade progresses, despite Xi Jinping's likely wish to do this. He adds that even if Xi plans to take over Korea, he has no clue when or how it will happen. British spy boss Richard Moore, who leads the MI6 agency, said he didn’t think a Beijing military strike on Taiwan is inevitable. However, he enacted methods of preparation to ensure that contingencies are covered in the event of such an eventuality. Western resolve combined with Russian errors should be alarming to Xi Jinping. It could lead to the same result as in Ukraine, Moore and others observed. The Chinese should wonder if the military might be inflating its own worth. Putin learned from the events in the Ukraine that if you play hardball, you have to have overwhelming force. Something needs to be done about Iran The concern over Iran’s nuclear advances are growing, especially now that the negotiations are unsuccessful. What military action against Iran would entail. Israel's defense minister, Benny Gantz, says that the Israeli military is trying to prepare for a confrontation with Iran. He also said that Israel would prefer not to "jump to war" and would rather use military force as a last resort if necessary. Al Khalifa shares the same concern, but believes that now is a better opportunity than later before Iran launches an attack of their own. MI6's Moore said he doesn't think the Iranian leader wants to cut a deal. What Russia has not been doing to other countries There is a lot of discussion and analysis going on in the U.S. about Russia's restraint over their use of their cyber abilities to attack Ukraine, even though they haven't entirely given up on them. When asked about Russia using its cyber arsenal in relation to the Ukraine, Anne Neuberger had a number of potential explanations. One possibility was that Russia was not ready to use its cyber weapons, another is that Vladimir Putin was deterred once he had been threatened of negative consequences by Joe Biden. Other option is that due to Ukraine trying to strengthen their critical infrastructure, they managed to prevent any major damage from being inflicted. "We don't know what is happening, but we're watching it closely." Mark Warner of the Senate Intelligence Committee cautioned that Russia had not yet shown its full power, and warned Sweden and Finland joining NATO could tempt future cyberattacks. Microsoft President Brad Smith noted that Russia may have been deterred by sanctions but nonetheless has used cyber to carry out destructive attacks, espionage efforts, and fake news. They detailed these activities in a report released last month. By spreading a misinformation campaign, the Russians have caused havoc on the Ukraine’s internet. According to intelligence chiefs, the rumors that Vladimir Putin has an illness are not true. They were dismissed this weekend at Aspen during a conference. "There's no evidence that Putin is suffering from serious health problems", said Burns. His British counterpart, Moore, responded with less conviction, but still with the same certainty: "As far as we can tell, he's entirely too healthy." The speculation will probably not end, but Putin has at least prevented some of it by visiting Iran. He makes a rare foray because he is largely staying isolated amidst the Covid-19 crisis.